June 2017 issue: references
General Election
Results
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017
Crosby
only involved too late
Government
Brexit White Paper, 2017
Manifestoes
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39955886 (summaries)
https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto
http://www.labour.org.uk/index.php/manifesto2017
http://dev.mydup.com/images/uploads/publications/DUP_Wminster_Manifesto_2017_v5.pdf
Starmer
and Labour position
The
referendum result must be respected and we will leave the EU.
…on
Single Market
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40231623
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/john-mcdonnell-brexit-peston-tory_uk_575d2827e4b041514369cf89
Juncker’s
suggestion to hold an election
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/10/election-nicky-morgan-theresa-hard-brexit
http://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-mays-election-strategy-hard-brexit-soft-landing/
The
fact that Australian election guru Lynton Crosby has already been signed up to
oversee the campaign, according to one Conservative minister, points to far
more serious planning than Number 10 have let on.
Facing
down opposition? But which opposition?
http://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-mays-election-strategy-hard-brexit-soft-landing/
Scottish
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said May’s goal was to wipe out opposition to a
hard Brexit.
Among
some pro-European Tory MPs there was quiet confidence that the move will
finally strengthen their hand against the Brexit hardliners. May is not trying
to break out of the problems caused by the opposition parties, but by the
opposition within her own party who are increasingly open to the prospect of no
deal with Brussels.
...
Rupert
Harrison, George Osborne’s former chief of staff who now works for the global
asset management company Blackrock, said the move was designed to give May more
room for maneuver at home, not abroad, “which is why the pound is rising.” The
chances of the U.K. crashing out of the EU with no deal have gone down, he
said.
However,
he warned pro-Europeans not to go overboard. Brexit was still going to be hard
— the landing might just be a little softer.
“To
be clear,” Harrison wrote, “this doesn’t mean ‘soft’ Brexit.” May still wants
to pull out of the single market, the customs union and the jurisdiction of the
European Court of Justice. But if she wins the election she buys herself more
time to agree a transition period on the road to a wide-ranging free-trade
agreement.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/steve-baker-theresa-may-brexit_uk_5940075fe4b0b13f2c6e21c4
On
Tuesday morning, ministers from the Brexit and International Trade departments
met with worried MPs to reassure them the plans for leaving the Single Market
and customs union had not changed.
https://behindthepaywallblog.wordpress.com/tag/the-times/page/2/
Far
from being against her or backing political parties opposed to Brexit, the
European Union is (more or less) on her side. It wants her to win because
European leaders, officials and diplomats believe that a newly elected Mrs May,
with no prospect of another general election until 2022, would be ready to make
concessions to keep access to the single market.
May
against the bureaucrats
Derailing
Brexit?
http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/all-bets-are-off-brexit-still-can-be-stopped-1-5055892
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-eu-idUKKBN1900I8
Jones/Anelay
http://www.dailypost.co.uk/business/business-news/clwyd-west-mp-david-jones-13176438
DUP
Manifesto
http://www.mydup.com/publications/view/2017-westminster-manifesto
http://dev.mydup.com/images/uploads/publications/DUP_Wminster_Manifesto_2017_v5.pdf
European
Research Group / Tomlinson letter signatories
Sammy
Wilson MP and Jim Shannon MP support Leave Means Leave
http://www.leavemeansleave.eu/who-we-are/
http://www.mydup.com/news/article/sinn-fein-policies-would-decimate-our-agri-food-industry-dodds
Also relevant…
disclaims speculation on Sinn Fein MPs taking up seats….
Vicky Ford MP (ex-MEP)
Cherry
picking
“Some politicians in other EU countries may say no to
an “a la carte” relationship for the UK, but when one examines the EU’s own
scoreboard for how individual countries implement Single Market agreements it
is clear that some of those same countries already take quite an “a la carte”
approach themselves.
Our on-going relationship with the Single Market will
of course be partly shaped by the decisions we make to ensure the UK has
control over migration, but even in this area things are not as inflexible as
sometimes portrayed. Politicians on both sides of the channel risk being locked
into positions based on theological purity, laying down absolutes as
non-negotiable whereas real world examples show that there already exist many examples of more flexible approaches.
In practical
terms it is impossible to move to Belgium without a reasonably well-paid job”.
Also
relevant:
Briefing
- UK-EU TRADE RELATIONS POST BREXIT: TOO MANY RED LINES?
https://www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=uktpo-briefing-paper-5.pdf&site=18
The
easiest red line to relax would be the EU one on no cherry picking, at least in
the context of Option 4, since in each case the EU has already granted
non-member states some aspects of Single Market freedoms….
It
can be separately noted that there are several cases of EU members going their
own way – Denmark and the UK opting out of the Single Currency. The Czechs not participating in the ESM. Other EU members
excluded from defence measures on account of their neutrality.
Unanimity
needed over the parts of trade agreements with French sensitivity.
Special arrangements for the formerly-named Netherlands Antilles.
Birgit
Sippel MEP on Denmark’s special ‘third country’ treatment on Europol
https://euobserver.com/justice/136653
“If you are a member of a club you have to
accept the rules. But in the European Union, this is not the case. We have
again and again, in different areas, opt-outs ... I think we should rethink
this way of co-operation…”
(Background
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmeuleg/71-xxx/7119.htm
....
- Europol is usually only permitted to reach agreements with non-Member States
but it has been agreed exceptionally that Denmark can be treated as such in
this context to ensure it retains a relationship with Europol.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35002158 )
Survey
Percentages
are for answers received to each question on http://www.newalliance.org.uk/qa17.htm
Not
everyone answered every question; some unclear answers were not included.
Survey
carried out between 1-13 June 2017; most answers received before election day.
It
is fair to mention Theresa May’s speech in London on leaving the EU, 25 April
2016
http://www.brugesgroup.com/quotes/withdrawal
•"I
want to deal with several arguments that should not count. The first is that in
the 21st century Britain is too small a country to cope outside the European
Union. That’s nonsense. We’re the fifth biggest economy in the world, we’re
growing faster than any economy in the G7, we attract nearly a fifth of all
foreign investment in the EU, we have a military capable of projecting its
power around the world, intelligence services that are second to none, and
friendships and alliances that go far beyond Europe. We have the greatest soft
power in the world, we sit in exactly the right timezone for global trade and
our language is the world’s language. Of course Britain could cope outside the
European Union."
The
negotiating techniques papers seen are not freely available, but these refs are
useful.
The
Behaviour of Successful Negotiators (sales focused)
https://system.netsuite.com/core/media/media.nl?id=9041&c=1035604&h=47e32ba37e2a3295bec0&_xt=.pdf
Michel
Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator
In
his speech, Barnier dangled some sweets for the U.K., by describing the future
relationship in more detailed terms than he has previously used. “It’s not too
early to start to sketch out that relationship,” he said. “It will include a
free and fair trade agreement, cooperation agreements, particularly regarding
universities and research, and partnership, we hope, in the areas of security
and defense.”
The
message seemed to be this: Take it step by step and in the right order and we all
just might get where you want to go.
Barnier
to European Parliament - No punishment - never!
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-881_en.htm
Chief
Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier says a ‘no deal scenario’ with the UK would be
unthinkable.
http://www.euronews.com/2017/05/22/chief-brexit-negotiator-says-a-no-deal-is-not-an-option
European
Council President Donald Tusk has said a 'no deal scenario' would be "bad
for everyone
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39294904
EU
Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström
"For
us, trade is something where both sides win."
In remarks which will have been closely watched in London
top eurocrat Cecilia Malmstrom insisted the bloc will
look to strike a fresh economic pact with the UK as soon as possible. The
Swedish EU trade commissioner said that a new relationship with Britain should
only take "a couple of years" to complete and calmed nerves with a
promise to seek a transitional accord to prevent any turbulence. Asked how long
it would take to strike such a pact, she replied: "It's hard to say but it
takes a couple of years depending on what you want to be in it and how the
mandate looks like. But it will not be over a weekend, no." Ms
Malmstrom said she expected London and Brussels to negotiate a transitional
agreement which will maintain economic ties for the entire time it takes to
negotiate a fresh trade relationship. And she said that whilst the EU is
"busy" negotiating "16 or 17" trade deals at the moment, it
will not be the case that Britain will be bottom of any queue for a future
agreement.
EU
‘foreign secretary’, Federica Mogherini
If
you apply a confrontational approach to trade for example, it is easy to see
where it would lead. Protectionism, and no willingness to compromise, can
easily spark a trade war. Let me quote again President Xi, who said it very
wisely: “No one would emerge as a winner in a trade war.” These are very wise
words that should make us all reflect. It would only cut opportunities for our
companies and slow down growth in all our countries. We would all lose.
To
prevent such a scenario we must engage together, we must look for win-win
cooperation, and we must agree together on a set of rules shared by everyone.
The cure to the current disorder is a cooperative
global governance based on rules...
The
answer to the current imbalances is not an impossible de-globalisation of our
world – but engagement with our partners, among partners, to make international
trade for instance both free and fair.
Cautionary
note on attaching non-trade matters to trade agreements.
Esther
Lynch, ETUC Confederal Secretary
It
is good to see the commitment that the future arrangements will include
safeguards against competition on fiscal, social and environmental dumping, but
no free trade deal has ever managed to enforce them in practice.
Trade
Justice Movement argues that the EU doesn't live up to its rhetoric on
non-trade obligations -
Trade
and the Public Interest
http://tjm.org.uk/trade-issues/european-policy
The
Commission’s trade strategy, ‘Trade for All’, declares that ‘one of the aims of
the EU is to ensure that economic growth goes hand in hand with social justice,
respect for human rights, high labour and environmental standards, and health
and safety protection.’ However, in the execution of its agreements, the EU’s
record has often failed to live up these aspirations.
G20
finance ministers
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/g20-nations-warn-brexit-risk-053642630.html
"In
the future, we hope to see the UK as a close partner of the EU."
Juncker
v keen on investment in Europe
Juncker
pledged in Strasbourg to do everything to make sure “the negotiations will be
according to the rules and yield good results”.
EU
holdings in UK: Chalmers and Menon
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/getting-out-quick-and-playing-the-long-game/
There
is significant EU investment in the United Kingdom. In 2014, it accounted for a
stock of £496 billion. To be sure, the United Kingdom would lose most if that
flow slowed or reversed. Yet a bad settlement would also inflict costs on those
EU investors. For the lucky, there would be relocation costs. For those unable
to relocate, there is the risk of a good investment turning the other way. And,
of course, UK citizens and companies invest heavily in the European Union with
the stock amounting in 2014 to £474.5 billion
47%
of UK foreign assets are within the EU; investment in continental Europe £3
trillion
UK
services ‘surplus’ queried.
“An
Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU 27”
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/595374/IPOL_STU(2017)595374_EN.pdf
"For
services the amounts are also large: €94 billion of exports by the EU27 to the
UK, versus
€122
billion of imports, and thus a surplus in this case for the UK (although here
the statistics are not so reliable, with big differences seen in the ‘mirror data’
for the same items collected by the EU27, which would cancel the UK’s
surplus)."
G20
2016, Japanese demands to UK and EU
http://www.cityam.com/248721/japans-issued-18-demands-brexit-businesses-could-leave-eu
Aviation,
carriers and routes
http://www.politico.eu/article/ireland-brexit-ryanair-transport-irish-face-turbulence/
[Eamonn Brennan, the long-standing CEO of the Irish Aviation
Authority] His calls to maintain open skies between the EU27 and the U.K. are
not shared by everyone on the Continent.
Several
governments, notably Germany backed by the powerful airline Lufthansa, argue
that “out is out” — and that includes air transport. This is as much a
commercial position as a political one.
Many
European airlines would love to see the back of competition from U.K. carriers.
But
Brennan believes that overall, the downsides for the EU will far outweigh the
upsides. “For the sake of business, leisure and tourism inter-dependencies, we
should not tolerate a restrictive air transport agreement. Whatever the
temptation may be, there is no space for the U.K. to be made an example of when
it comes to this issue,” he said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/22/will-brexit-mean-uk-airline-industry/
According
to ACI Europe, 285,000 jobs in the EU27 are linked to UK/EU air travel.
Clearing,
financial services
http://brexitcentral.com/brussels-uk-agree-implement-brexit/
Restricting
trade access goes against the heart of everything the EU stands for. As I have
argued here, it is in the European Union’s interest to grant a lot of trade
access to Britain, not least because if the EU were to restrict investment from
the City of London, it would inflict a lot of self-harm. This line of thinking
is gaining ground. German Finance Minister Schauble recently said that it is in
Europe’s interest that London remains a “strong” financial centre after it
leaves the EU, while Germany’s German banking watchdog Bafin
has warned against rushing to move euro clearing out of UK after Brexit. Even
Michel Barnier has warned that any Brexit-developments related to the City of
London shouldn’t lead to financial instability in the Eurozone.
Clearing
houses are a key part of the financial plumbing that was beefed up after the
2008 market crash to manage the risk inherent in some types of financial
transactions. They act as intermediaries between two sides of a trade by taking
a down-payment from parties in case they go bust before the trade is completed.
Their usage became mandatory for certain financial trades following the crash,
with the sole aim of preventing another bank-led economic implosion.
http://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-makes-euro-clearing-a-brexit-battleground/
The
EU’s executive arm forged ahead with a proposal feared by many in the City of
London on so-called euro clearing, which will cost banks an estimated £63
billion and could deprive the U.K. of 83,000 jobs. The new proposals empower
the Commission to strip London of its nearly €1 trillion-a-day euro-clearing
business if it deems it necessary for financial soundness in the EU.
...
Under
the Commission’s new proposals, if a clearing house poses economic risks to the
EU, its entire business model may be forced to change.
So if the firm wants to continue to attract European clients, Brussels is
insisting that it be subject to EU rules. Most importantly, the Commission also
gets to decide whether the clearing house must relocate into the eurozone,
allowing watchdogs to more closely keep an eye on what’s happening with their
currency.
...
Unsurprisingly,
the London Stock Exchange Group, which houses clearing giant LCH and stands to
lose a huge chunk of business, is warning of disastrous knock-on effects if
euro clearing leaves London. The banks also oppose the move on the grounds that
it will increase costs and lead to unintended consequences that would threaten
financial stability. “This kind of currency nationalism is likely to lead to
less competition, higher costs and market fragmentation,” said Miles Celic, CEO of TheCityUK, a
financial industry lobbying group.
Responding
to new EU Commission proposals published today on derivatives rules, which
include references to possible location requirements for central counterparties
(CCPs) involved in euro clearing
Celic "Clearing is an
activity where economies of scale make a big difference to the cost of doing
business.
This is one of the major reasons why clearing has become concentrated in major
international centres like London. It has the scale, expertise and infrastructure
to keep costs as low as possible.
A
forced re-location of euro-clearing would lead to disruption, uncertainty and
fragmentation of the market. A potentially less liquid,
and less competitive EU market would result in higher costs for European savers
and investors. This would ultimately be detrimental to people and businesses in
Britain and in Europe. This is in no one’s interest and is entirely
avoidable."
US
derivatives regulator warns EU
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/803279/Brexit-EU-City-London-clearing-European-Union-finance
New
analysis from a leading think-tank confirms that London will likely be a
massive bargaining chip for the UK in upcoming Brexit negotiations. After all,
the EU relies on UK finance heavily.
https://piie.com/commentary/op-eds/why-soft-brexit-interest-both-london-and-brussels
Analysts
at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) say the number of UK
companies which would lose the right to trade in the EU would be high at 5,500
but the number of EU companies which would lose access to the UK would be
higher at 8,000.
It
is this realisation that had the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michael Barnier wants
the EU to retain easy access to London's financial institutions following
Brexit.
Peter
Hill
http://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-appoints-ex-eu-official-as-top-aide/
Crawford
Falconer
http://politico.us8.list-
manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=1aa039eb89&e=1ec1bf43b3
http://politico.us8.list-
manage1.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=573f9dba34&e=1ec1bf43b3
EU
free trade policy
www.newalliance.org.uk/tradefull.htm
Interpretations
on goals and obligations of WTO-GATT Treaties
WTO
Marrakesh Analytical Index – especial note of references 8, 9, 11, 13
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/analytic_index_e/wto_agree_01_e.htm
“security and predictability of ‘the reciprocal and mutually
advantageous arrangements directed to the substantial reduction of tariffs and
other barriers to trade’ is an object and purpose of the WTO Agreement
…
concessions made by WTO Members should be interpreted so as to further the general
objective of the expansion of trade in goods and the substantial reduction of
tariffs. arrangements entered into by Members be
reciprocal and mutually advantageous
…
the
purpose of such agreements should be to facilitate trade between the
constituent territories and not to raise barriers to the trade of other Members
with such territories; and that in their formation or enlargement the parties
to them should to the greatest possible extent avoid creating adverse effects
on the trade of other Members;
…
regional
trade agreements and those of the GATT and the WTO have always been
complementary, and therefore should be interpreted consistently with one
another, with a view to increasing trade and not to raising barriers to trade,
thereby arguing against an interpretation that would allow, on the occasion of
the formation of a customs union, for the introduction of quantitative
restrictions)”
WTO
D-G Azevedo
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/brexit-unlikely-disrupt-uk-trade-says-wto-director-general-1588422
In
an interview with Sky News, the WTO boss said he was not of the opinion that
the Brexit vote was "anti-trade" and added that the UK would not
suffer trade setbacks during or after its negotiations with the EU.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/project-fear-backtracking-isnt-yet/
Azevedo
- The UK is a member of the WTO today, it will continue to be a member
tomorrow,’ he told Sky News. ‘There will be no discontinuity in membership.
They have to renegotiate but that doesn’t mean they are not members. Trade will
not stop, it will continue and members negotiate the legal basis under which
that trade is going to happen. But it doesn’t mean that we’ll have a vacuum or
a disruption.’
Spain
fragile
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/784157/Spanish-debt-EU-exit-trillion-public-debt-bubble
Spanish
university professors and economists are calling on Prime Minister Mariano
Rajoy to come clean over its debt burdens (claims debt is much higher than
admitted!)
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/774327/Brexit-UK-Spain-May-Rajoy-tourism-Gibraltar
The
UK market accounts for seven per cent of Spain’s entire export market, with the
UK being particularly important for the car and aviation industry, food and
drink and pharmaceuticals.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/10/hard-brexit-could-cost-spain-1bn-leaked-report-says
World
economy and Japanese Yen vulnerable
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-china-idUSKCN103043
Regarded
as a safe haven at times of market turmoil, the yen JPY= strengthened to around
100 to the dollar after the Brexit vote in late June, much to the chagrin of
Japanese officials
Many
countries are worried that a long delay could add to uncertainties that are
dragging on the world economy.
EU
Social Partners
Business
Europe (previously known as UNICE, CBI is a member)
Committed
to a smart Brexit
UEAPME
(SMEs. UK FSB is a member. UEAPME is in Business Europe)
http://www.ueapme.com/IMG/pdf/170329_-_pr_Brexit.pdf
UEAPME
foresees that in a worst-case scenario where the UK leaves the Internal Market
and the Customs Union without a new trade agreement, Europe -may be confronted
with a new economic crisis and the possibility of a recession in some Member
States.
ETUC
CEEP
http://www.ceep.eu/joint-statement-of-the-eu-social-partners-for-the-tripartite-social-summit/
“Our
aim is to preserve as close economic relations between the European Union and
the United-Kingdom as possible, while preserving the integrity of the Single
Market, and fully respecting the four freedoms linked to it, i.e. free movement
of goods, services, capital and persons.”
Also
Eurochambres (not including UK, Denmark): EU-UK future relations: a trade
oriented Brexit
http://www.eurochambres.eu/content/default.asp?PageID=1&DocID=7628
EU
parties and groups
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Council
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en
http://www.epp.eu/about-us/leaders/
Various EU goodwill
http://accesswdun.com/article/2017/1/491703
http://www.epp.eu/files/uploads/2015/09/Platform2012_EN1.pdf
2012
Platform (p14)
138.
...Markets must work as freely as possible and unfair practices and
protectionist measures against free competition and free trade need to be done
away with.
[EPP]
McAllister, who has a British father and is the former PM of the German state
of Lower Saxony for Angela Merkel’s CDU party, is the German Chancellor’s
‘Brexit man’ in the European Parliament. …In this exclusive interview with Open
Europe, McAllister makes clear that, at this stage, he sees a Free Trade
Agreement as the most likely outcome of the negotiations….The UK is asking for
this divorce. We are not eager to punish Britain nor are we eager to give it a
favourable treatment.”
The
S&D Group will work for solutions that are mutually beneficial for both EU
and UK citizens.
Helga
Stevens for ECR group
“My
belief is what we need to do is a fair deal which benefits both of us.
“The
UK will still exist, still be part of Europe so we need to make an effort to
make sure there’s a win-win situation.”
http://ecrgroup.eu/ecr-policies/ideas-for-reform/
The
ECR, as a group that supports free and open trade as stated in the founding
principles of its Prague declaration…
http://www.aldeparty.eu/en/values/market-economics
European
liberal democrats believe in an economy that is based on market principles
where individual economic and political freedoms are guaranteed as the most
effective system for ensuring future prosperity, encouraging competiveness and
ensuring longer-term employment. Therefore, the ALDE Party has consistently
been promoting free trade and a fully functioning European Single Market for
the benefit of consumers and small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs).
http://policycenter.eldr.eu/WebSites/UploadFolder/1/CMS/Files/Expose_EU_Single_Market_Economy(1).pdf
http://www.aldeparty.eu/en/news/alde-party-congress-adopts-resolutions-brexit-ukraine-womens-rights
On
the consequences of UK referendum on Brexit, the ALDE Party calls for "the
negotiating parties to pursue a prudent and pragmatic approach, seeking a
balanced deal for both the EU and the UK, which does not introduce any unnecessary
barriers to trade and mobility and which ensures that a strong partnership
remains" and "to ensure that the negotiations, which will start once
article 50 is triggered, are conducted in a fair way." Particularly, the
resolution emphasises the importance of "efforts to minimise adverse
impacts of Brexit on individual citizens, including those on free movement
rights (of goods, persons, services and capital), which are core values of the
EU."
Spain
moves on Gibraltar, just after the EU confirms its negotiating guidelines
http://www.politico.eu/article/spains-plan-b-gibraltar-post-brexit-sovereignty/
Spain’s
government seems to be softening its position on Gibraltar, according to a
blueprint for Brexit negotiations.
The same conditions that apply to the
British mainland after the country leaves the EU must apply to its territories
such as Gibraltar, Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy told his British
counterpart Theresa May…
German
car industry: No-deal UK could compound American and Chinese problems?
http://www.politico.eu/article/bavaria-to-trump-tariffs-on-cars-will-hurt-us-as-much-as-germany/
The
Bavarian economy minister left no doubt that “a deterioration of trade
relations with the United States would have fatal consequences — particularly
for the Bavarian car industry.”
It
was important for all EU countries to work together to prevent the U.S. from
introducing one-sided trade barriers, she said — and to look elsewhere for
trading partners.
“By
broadening our connections with trade partners, we minimize the dependency from
single countries or regions, and we reduce the risk for loss of trade by
political sanctions or crises,” Aigner said.
http://www.politico.eu/article/china-turns-screws-on-german-cars-to-swing-eu-trade-policy/
China,
ever the master of divide-and-rule tactics when confronting EU trade policy,
has threatened to impose a car quota system that could seriously dent the sales
of Germany’s blue-riband industry, affecting brands such as Volkswagen, BMW,
Audi, Mercedes and Porsche.
Volkswagen
http://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-car-city-drives-on-after-dieselgate/
Ulrich
Eichhorn, the carmaker’s chief technical officer, former managing director of
the powerful national lobby group, the German Association of the Automotive
Industry, Eichhorn is used to operating in the closely connected spheres of the
German auto industry and politics.
"His
message for Brussels is stark: if VW is weakened, so too is the European
economy. “The continued success of Volkswagen is very important to the German
and European economy and societies,” he said."
https://www.ft.com/content/1394c4da-97a7-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582
Wolfgang
Münchau, writing this week in the Financial Times, is rather unusually for that
newspaper quite optimistic about the prospects for an “amicable divorce”, and
about how Merkel will play this: “She may pretend that she wants to be tough on
Britain — but once German jobs are at risk I would expect her principled
position to crumble.”
Extra costs for Germany?
...a
group of experts told German lawmakers they should expect to incur extra costs
if Britain leaves without a trade agreement because it is the EU’s largest net
contributor.
If
Britain were to leave the bloc without a deal, then it would no longer be
obliged to transfer any money to Brussels from April 2019 onwards and would not
need to contribute to the future pension costs of EU officials, which stands at
a sizeable £54.1billion.
Dr
Peter Becker, 58, at Germany’s Institute for International Policy and Security,
told the Bundestag’s European Committee: “The EU would have no legal means to
demand outstanding payments from London.” He suggested Germany would have to
pay an additional £5.1bn towards the bloc’s pension fund if Britain leaves
without an agreement.
FT
hyped ‘€100bn ‘Brexit bill’ disputed
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39789903
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/12511.htm#_idTextAnchor059
Clause
24 of this Appendix has the meat of it: "EU Member States may seek to
bring a case against the UK for the payments of outstanding debts under
principles of public international law, such as acquired rights, but
international law is slow to litigate and hard to enforce. In addition, it is
questionable whether an international court or tribunal could have
jurisdiction" What this "legal advice" basically says then is
not that there is legally no bill to pay but that legally there may be no way
of the EU enforcing payment.
EU
budget economies approaching
http://www.politico.eu/article/antonio-tajani-eu-budget-copernican-revolution/
[Gianni
Pitella MEP] “Let’s not forget that every reform of funding is strictly in
connection with Brexit, which will account for a significant loss to the EU
budget.”
[Paolo
De Castro MEP, former Italian Minister of Agriculture, Food and Forestry]
Still,
he acknowledged that the overall Common Agricultural Policy budget would
diminish following Britain’s exit from the EU in March 2019 at the earliest. “We
know we have to pay part of the cost of Brexit,” he said.
Switzerland
and the free movement of persons
An
Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU 27
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/595374/IPOL_STU(2017)595374_EN.pdf
A
second and more relevant aspect of the Swiss experience concerns the free
movement of people. Switzerland agreed in 1999 to the free movement of people,
subject however to a ‘safeguard clause’, which provided that: “In the event of
serious economic or social difficulties, the Joint Committee shall meet, at the
request of either Contracting Party, to examine appropriate measures to remedy
the situation. … The scope and duration of such measures shall not exceed that
which is strictly necessary to remedy the situation. Preference shall be given
to measures that least disrupt the working of this
Agreement.” This clause has never been activated"
May
hints free movement will continue: refusal to guarantee less EU immigration
http://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-mays-brexit-retreat-negotiation-europe-security-gibraltar/
http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-general-election-2017-theresa-may-takes-on-the-saboteurs/
But
by bringing the election forward, May gives herself more time for the tricky
bits of a transition. When asked by the BBC’s Nick Robinson this morning to
guarantee free movement will end in 2019, for example, May refused.
May
wobbles on ECJ? ECJ not being mentioned
will fuel speculation of a role for it.
http://www.politico.eu/article/how-brexit-haunts-mays-conservative-manifesto/
Charles
Grant of CER for the European Parliament, on how to get a better deal
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2017/583130/IPOL_IDA(2017)583130_EN.pdf
"It
is true that the EU’s FTAs with other countries include arbitration mechanisms
that do not
involve the ECJ….
On
a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement
An
Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU 27
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/595374/IPOL_STU(2017)595374_EN.pdf
"The
EU’s doctrine that all four freedoms are an indivisible package is thus applied
to the EU itself and the EEA, but not between the EU and other close
neighbours, or FTAs with the rest of the world."
..
The dispute settlement mechanisms lean on WTO practice, with
less total reliance on the European Court of Justice than in the EEA case.
EU
borders and derogations
There
have been worries as to the possible treatment of the UK as a ‘third country’
and problems with movement of goods, customs checks and clearance. However the
EU has the right to act under TFEU Article 32, where it will promote trade
between member states and third countries, and the need to avoid serious
economic disturbances in the economies of member states.
Regulation EC1931/2006 (as
amended) could set a broad adaptable precedent to ease the situation of Gibraltar
or at the Irish border. It noted that is in the interest of the EU to ensure
that the borders with its neighbours are not a barrier to trade, social and cultural
interchange or regional cooperation. It laid down rules on local border traffic
at the external land borders of the Member States
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2006:405:0001:0022:EN:PDF
Non-EU
(EFTA) countries like Norway and Switzerland can benefit from common transit
and customs control systems
http://madb.europa.eu/madb/viewPageIFPubli.htm?doc=overview&hscode=&countryid=CH#h9
http://madb.europa.eu/madb/viewPageIFPubli.htm?doc=overview&hscode=&countryid=CH#h11
http://www.revenue.ie/en/customs/businesses/ncts.html
Reassurance
from the FT’s Wolfgang Munchau
https://www.ft.com/content/5b7690ce-0b08-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
A
sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think
So
what about the ultimate argument — that the EU needs to punish the UK to set a
disincentive for others to leave? This is complete piffle. (explains
why)
I
am really struggling to identify a single insurmountable obstacle to a deal.
Matthew
Elliott, Legatum Institute
http://www.cityam.com/263385/victory-centrist-and-eu-phile-emmanuel-macron-could
If
Brexit is interpreted as a consequence of British exceptionalism – a jolt from
a country that was never as comfortable or suited to EU membership as the rest
– why “punish” the UK to set an example to the rest?
http://www.cityam.com/262377/prime-minister-theresa-may-says-free-movement-could-green
Tusk
has also said EU leaders won't pursue a punitive approach as "Brexit in
itself is already punitive enough".
WTO
waiver
http://www.politico.eu/article/britain-10-year-interim-zero-for-zero-trade-deal-brexit/
Under
a little-known WTO clause, the U.K. and Brussels would be allowed a “reasonable
length of time” after Brexit to agree a free-trade deal before trade law would
force both sides to impose the same tariffs on each other as they do on
everybody else
CETA
and provisional working
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/ceta-explained/#investments
Lord
Ashdown
http://asiahouse.org/paddy-ashdown-variant-norway-model-likely-outcome-brexit-talks/
General comment
Ryan
Bourne, ex-IEA
http://www.cityam.com/266498/softer-brexit-may-mays-best-hope-now
Yet
May now appears to not have the political capital to carry forward her original
agenda. Worse, if no deal is reached at all, her failure to outline and obtain
a mandate for rigorous supply-side changes, stripping away EU tariffs and
regulations, means that Britain would be left with the downsides of Brexit
without realising the gains.
The
real looming risk now is a future Corbyn-led government with much more freedom
to change regulation, employment law and trade policy in an anti-market
direction.
For
this reason, the less risky economic path for the short-term would be to try to
come to a deal to maintain Single Market membership explicitly for a slightly
extended period, with a longer term timetable for a free trade deal.
http://www.brugesgroup.com/images/papers/whatitwilllooklike.pdf
has some reasoned opinions; covers some areas in more depth than others.
Elmar
Brok, a senior MEP in Germany’s ruling centre-right party, said the EU would be
open-minded if Britain reneged on its pledge to come out of the single market
and the customs union following the election result. “We are open to everything
from internal market and customs union to a free trade agreement. It depends on
the flexibility of the British government. We want to keep the damage of Brexit
low,” he said.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elmar_Brok
(Not
just an influential Parliamentarian and member of Merkel’s party, but also
President of the Union of European Federalists)
Pascal
Lamy quotes on WTO
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/pascal-lamy-way-forward-after-brexit
Q:
What about the role of the World Trade Organization? You were director-general
for eight years, you know it very well. Do you think that if the British were
forced to fall back on just WTO rules, is that easily done?
A:
I think it can be easily done, provided there is a bit of goodwill on all
sides. WTO lawyers can be reasonably pragmatic and if we agree that the main
thing is that trade should be hampered as little as possible, I think that’s
not the most complex problem we’ll have to solve. You just have to know that
there is a level of trade openness today, which is the [EU] internal market.
...
Q:
But the short-term issues that will have to be settled will involve some very
difficult questions, including money, the budget, how much is paid; including
also, presumably, a sense of the jurisprudence – who will, if you like,
regulate the disputes of things. Doesn’t that have to be settled quickly?
A:
You’re absolutely correct. The budget thing… it’s a question of numbers at the
end of the day. Once the principle that the UK has financial obligations it will
respect – which should be a normal thing to do – is agreed, numbers can always
be adjusted. When a negotiation is about numbers, usually there is a solution.
This
page updated: 21 Jun 2017